Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 122.727100 141.207083 162.193243 187.927380 218.819484 254.943480 300.723960
2025-12-21 97.819172 120.801311 149.296483 187.708281 238.882818 305.798863 401.751532
2025-12-28 86.949382 113.284343 148.216163 198.971672 272.607223 378.456011 547.731947
2026-01-04 78.606774 106.849193 146.392479 207.497105 302.751078 451.414033 713.718708
2026-01-11 71.828134 101.141798 144.094530 214.069432 330.253379 525.534930 903.145603
2026-01-18 65.621803 95.187572 140.214897 216.995642 351.765631 593.953226 1103.918246
2026-01-25 59.949453 89.197358 135.248234 216.975362 367.707625 655.573754 1312.056417
2026-02-01 54.296175 82.511849 128.193271 212.059754 373.476224 698.661882 1495.524071
2026-02-08 49.428361 76.534412 121.523023 206.679274 377.087871 737.857399 1684.519325
2026-02-15 45.337548 71.406856 115.669088 201.849058 380.707760 777.665106 1890.990308
2026-02-22 44.378618 71.459714 118.823958 214.545424 423.142402 916.878723 2437.066285
2026-03-01 42.055697 68.890625 116.922647 216.890504 443.420851 1008.522324 2890.358030
2026-03-08 40.091025 66.861281 115.957716 221.385311 470.556972 1129.008466 3524.569124
2026-03-15 37.736356 63.907888 112.921210 221.067406 486.309609 1224.369924 4137.873114
2026-03-22 37.125944 64.125147 116.072447 234.825072 540.710233 1453.292977 5490.034124
2026-03-29 36.179067 63.599537 117.653556 245.267374 589.197898 1685.084010 7105.280028
2026-04-05 35.062016 62.629973 118.193483 253.332064 633.320765 1922.803059 9048.593923
2026-04-12 33.642361 60.928018 116.988417 256.926511 665.466675 2132.956376 11129.509609
2026-04-19 32.050128 58.741002 114.502136 256.901570 686.704487 2311.887727 13288.904451
2026-04-26 30.138859 55.750269 109.953986 250.864564 687.504138 2407.887158 14995.509957
2026-05-03 28.346708 52.879027 105.418744 244.263998 685.141552 2490.811063 16763.730608
2026-05-10 26.749475 50.305171 101.333289 238.345143 683.900445 2579.952550 18789.282739
2026-05-17 26.679675 50.973593 104.793803 253.916492 762.544547 3102.691438 26728.219593